9780393541984

Radical Uncertainty

Format: Paperback

ISBN13: 9780393541984

Paperback|9780393541984


Overview

Some uncertainties are resolvable. The insurance industry's actuarial tables and the gambler's roulette wheel both yield to the tools of probability theory. Most situations in life, however, involve a deeper kind of uncertainty, a radical uncertainty for which historical data provide no useful guidance to future outcomes. Radical uncertainty concerns events whose determinants are insufficiently understood for probabilities to be known or forecasting possible. Before President Barack Obama made the fateful decision to send in the Navy Seals, his advisers offered him wildly divergent estimates of the odds that Osama bin Laden would be in the Abbottabad compound. In 2000, no one--not least Steve Jobs--knew what a smartphone was; how could anyone have predicted how many would be sold in 2020? And financial advisers who confidently provide the information required in the standard retirement planning package--what will interest rates, the cost of living, and your state of health be in 2050?--demonstrate only that their advice is worthless.

The limits of certainty demonstrate the power of human judgment over artificial intelligence. In most critical decisions there can be no forecasts or probability distributions on which we might sensibly rely. Instead of inventing numbers to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we should adopt business, political, and personal strategies that will be robust to alternative futures and resilient to unpredictable events. Within the security of such a robust and resilient reference narrative, uncertainty can be embraced, because it is the source of creativity, excitement, and profit.


ISBN-13

9780393541984

ISBN-10

0393541983

Weight

1.13 Pounds

Dimensions

5.50 x 1.40 x 8.30 In

List Price

$17.95

Format

Paperback

Language

English

Pages

544 pages

Publisher

W. W. Norton & Company

Published On

2021-09-07



View All Offers

Sort by:

Rows per page:

1–5 of 5

Condition
Seller
Seller Comments
Price
Used, Good
Seller details
BooksRun
★★★★☆

Philadelphia, PA, USA

It's a preowned item in good condition and includes all the pages. It may have some general signs ...
$12.91

 Free delivery by: 31 Mar 2026

Used, Good
Seller details
Used Book Company
★★★★☆

Egg Harbor Township, NJ, USA

Shows very minimal signs of wear and previous use. Can include notes highlighting. A portion of yo...
$14.95

 Free delivery by: 31 Mar 2026

Used, Like New
Seller details
GreatBookPrices-
★★★★☆

Columbia, MD, USA

100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition. We offer expedited shipping to all US locat...
$20.09

 Free delivery by: 31 Mar 2026

Brand New
Seller details
GreatBookPrices-
★★★★☆

Columbia, MD, USA

100% Money Back Guarantee. Brand New, Perfect Condition. We offer expedited shipping to all US locat...
$39.30

 Free delivery by: 31 Mar 2026


Bookstores.com relies on cookies to improve your experience.