Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning.

Key Features:

• Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved
• Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import
• Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid
• Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations
• Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation